42 pc of Americans will be obese by 2030

Washington, May 8 (ANI): A latest study has predicted that, by 2030, 42 percent of American adults will be obese, and about one-quarter of that group will be severely obese.

The forecast released on Monday is less ominous than one published four years ago that predicted that 51 percent of the population would be obese in 2030.

Nevertheless, the trend foretells a huge drag on the health and economic welfare of the United States.

"If we don't do anything, this is going to really hinder any efforts to contain future health-care costs," the Washington Post quoted Justin G. Trogdon, an economist and one of the authors of the projection, as telling the experts on Monday at the start of the two-day "Weight of the Nation" conference in Washington.

However, if obesity stays at its current prevalence - 34 percent of adults - and does not increase, the savings in projected health-care costs will be considerable, about 550 billion dollars, the authors said.

The most recent evidence suggests that obesity rates are plateauing.

"Regardless which is correct, we still have a very serious problem," William H. Dietz, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's obesity program, said of the scenarios.

Obesity related ailments like diabetes, heart disease, kidney failure - put away at least 9 percent of health-care spending in the United States.

Some researchers believe the cost may be twice of that estimate. Total health spending is about 2.6 trillion dollars a year.

The new study used obesity prevalence data from 1990 through 2008 to extrapolate future trends.

The information came from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, a federally funded telephone survey. People underestimate their weight when asked on the phone; that fact was compensated for in the mathematical model.

The researchers also incorporated variables, measured in each state that affected obesity rates.

These included the price of gasoline, which discourages walking when it is low; access to the Internet (and other technologies), which encourages sedentary behaviour as it increases; and restaurants per 10,000 people, which increases eating out and weight gain when the number goes up.

Obesity is a body mass index (BMI) of 30 or more, which is 186 pounds for someone 5 feet, 6 inches tall. Severe obesity is a BMI of 40 or more - 248 pounds for someone that height.

Eric A. Finkelstein, a researcher at Duke University who led the new study, said that just in the past 50 years has it been possible for millions of people to be both sufficiently inactive and to have access to enough food to become severely obese.

"The world has changed in ways that allow people to be that overweight," he said.

The reason for the plateauing of the obesity prevalence is uncertain. It almost certainly reflects many factors, including an approach to a natural limit of the epidemic and the success of efforts to fight it by encouraging exercise and educating people about better eating habits.

The new study is published in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine. (ANI)