Gross NPAs to reach Rs. 9, 50,000Cr by March '18

ANI | Updated: Jan 23, 2018 13:30 IST

New Delhi [India], Jan 23 (ANI): With the Indian banking sector currently under stress, gross NPAs are expected to rise from Rs. 8 lakh crore to Rs. 9.5 lakh crore by March this year, an ASSOCHAM-Crisil study noted.

The report titled 'ARCs headed for a structural shift' said by March 31, gross NPAs will account for about 10.5 per cent of total advances, while stressed assets are expected to be at Rs. 11.5 lakh crore.

"High level of stressed assets in the banking system provides enormous opportunity size for asset reconstruction companies (ARCs) which are an important stakeholder in the NPA resolution process," the paper said.

The study, however, noted that owing to capital constraints, growth of ARCs is expected to come down significantly.

While growth is expected to fall to around 12 percent until June 2019, the assets under management (AUM) are expected to reach Rs. 1 lakh crore.

The study further said banks are expected to make higher provisioning over and above the provisions made for stressed assets, for which they may sell the assets at lower discounts, thus increasing the capital requirement.

Since the existing capital base of ARCs will not support in absorbing stressed assets available in the market, they are expected to be a part of the multi-platform business model with co-investors/large funds to bring in capital and stay relevant.

"The recovery rate, which is a good indicator of the effectiveness of ARCs, is expected to rise from 38 per cent earlier to about 44 to 48 percent. An improvement in the recovery rate and reduction in timeline for resolution will increase investor confidence in the Indian bond market," said the report.

It added that quicker debt aggregation, acquisition of assets with low vintage, and support from promoters have driven improvement in recovery.

Noting that ARCs have been active in acquiring companies in metal and construction sectors which constitute a small portion of overall tapped NPAs in the system, the ASSOCHAM-Crisil study suggested that to tap opportunities, ARCs are required to look at large assets that require large capital commitments in sectors such as power.

The study also said that effective implementation of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) would be a remedy to the challenge of prolonged litigation and it can help improve the recovery rate of stressed assets' industry further.

2018 is expected to witness a structural shift in the stressed assets' space as increased stringency in banks' provisioning norms for investments in security receipts (SRs) is likely to result in more cash purchases. Fiscal 2018 marks beginning of third phase of ARCs which promises to change the landscape as new regulations and other changes kick-in.

While the first phase between fiscals 2003-2014 saw setting up of many ARCs along with a rise in their AUM owing to surging NPAs and low levels of required investment, the second phase between fiscals 2014 and 2017 saw key regulatory change in terms of increase in minimum investment required by ARCs for asset acquisition which increased the capital requirement. (ANI)